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Playoffs · Plan··8 min

Playoff planning starts in week 10, not week 18

Schedule leverage, rest-day distribution, and streamer math. A week-by-week plan that turns a sixth-seed regular season into a championship-week ambush.

Managers who win championships don't start thinking about the playoffs in week 18. They start in week 10, when the schedule firms up and you can map the rest of the season as a leverage problem: how many games each of your players plays in each playoff week, how many rest days the stars get, and how many streamer slots are available on the wire.

Schedule leverage is a real number

The playoff schedule-leverage score for a player is the excess of their playoff-week games-played over the league median, weighted by their category-win contribution. A three-game week in championship week for a high-leverage guard can be worth 1.5 category wins against a median roster; a one-game week for a low-usage center is worth nothing. Pick Pilot computes this per-player nightly.

Rest-day distribution matters as much as the raw count

A player with four games, all back-to-backs, is not the same asset as one with four games spread evenly — the back-to-back player is more likely to sit the second half. The schedule-weights model penalizes bunched schedules by up to 12%, and the playoff panel shows both raw games and rest-adjusted games so you can see which of your players will actually be on the court when it counts.

The streamer slot budget

Most leagues cap moves per week. Your playoff streamer plan is the difference between your move budget and your committed moves — that's the number of free bets you have on 3-game-week sleepers. The panel shows the budget explicitly and flags weeks where you've already committed all your moves and therefore cannot stream.

Week 10 action items

By week 10 you should: (1) identify the two playoff weeks with the highest leverage potential for your current roster; (2) target players whose schedule complements, not duplicates, your existing stars; (3) start banking move budget rather than spending it on single-week upgrades. The playbook is the same every year. The arithmetic is what's different per league.